توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s **highest temperature on 8 August** is settled by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max”, so the key question is whether the city delivers an ordinary hot-day peak or something close to a record-type spike. The market is currently priced at 0% YES, but the day’s official reading can still move materially if sunshine dominates and the urban heat builds quickly.

The main historical reference point is 8 August 2015, when the Observatory hit **36.3°C**, the hottest day ever recorded there at the time, with several district stations well above that level[2][4]. For August as a whole, the Observatory’s 1991–2020 daily normal for 8 August shows a much lower pattern, with the average maximum around **31.7°C** and the mean temperature around **29.0°C**[7]. More recently, August 2024 was described by the Observatory as “exceptionally hot”, with a mean daily maximum of **32.3°C** for the month, which is a useful reminder that late-summer heat can still run above normal even without a record-breaking extreme[19].

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning and early-afternoon Observatory readings, because Hong Kong maxima typically peak before sunset and the final value is then fixed in the daily extract once published. At 3 a.m. HKT on 8 August, the Observatory was already at **29°C**, with several urban and outlying stations at 28–30°C, indicating a warm starting point but not yet an outcome[8]. The live forecast line has been very hot for the same date, with AccuWeather showing highs in the upper 90s Fahrenheit for Hong Kong on 8 August, which aligns with a likely low-30s Celsius finish rather than an extreme outlier[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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