توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing its mid-summer heatwave, with the city bracing for peak temperatures as July 21, 2026, unfolds under clear skies and high humidity. The Hong Kong Observatory has recorded daily maximums consistently above 33°C in recent weeks, reflecting the typical thermal intensity of late July in the region. Historical data shows that the absolute daily maximum on July 21 has rarely fallen below 32°C since 2000, with several years exceeding 35°C during strong subtropical ridge conditions [1].

The current 0% YES probability implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to an unusually narrow or misaligned threshold set by the market creator. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 saw July 21 highs of 34.8°C and 35.2°C respectively, suggesting that unless a sudden monsoon trough or heavy rainfall disrupts the pattern, temperatures will remain well within the upper band. Traders should monitor the Observatory’s “Daily Extract” release scheduled for 2026-07-22, which will finalise the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” value and trigger settlement [1].

Key catalysts include real-time weather bulletins from the Hong Kong Observatory and any unexpected tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, which could suppress temperatures. A recent forecast update from the Observatory indicates stable high-pressure dominance through July 21, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-temperature day [1]. No suspensions or data delays are currently anticipated, and the settlement window remains fixed until 2026-07-21T12:00:00Z, ensuring timely resolution once the official figure is published.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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