توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s hottest reading at William P. Hobby Airport on 3 August will be judged against a city that is usually very warm in early August, with climatology and forecast model output both pointing to highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit rather than anything near the 0% crowd assumption. August averages for Houston sit around the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit on several climate pages, while longer-range outlooks for the month lean a touch above normal rather than anomalously cool.[1][14][19] That makes the market’s current pricing aggressive unless a specific cool-air setup, persistent cloud cover, or widespread rain materially capped the airport high.

Comparable early-August Houston days often land close to the upper 80s Fahrenheit, and even generic monthly guides describe August as one of the city’s hottest periods with strong heat and humidity.[6][15][18] A published day-level forecast for 3 August showed sunshine and a high around 37°C, which is roughly 99°F, illustrating why a very low probability on any high-temperature band looks difficult to justify absent a sharp forecast revision.[3][4] The key read-through is that Houston does not need an extreme heatwave to clear the most common settlement ranges; a normal hot August afternoon is often enough.

The main catalysts to watch are the final forecast updates from local and national weather services, especially any shift in cloud cover, rain chances, or wind direction that changes how quickly Hobby Airport warms after morning conditions. Airport-specific outcomes can diverge from broader Houston forecasts, so traders should focus on the William P. Hobby Airport station rather than downtown or Houston-area averages. On 3 August, one weather preview also described the day as “hot and hazy”, which typically favours a higher afternoon max if moisture and sun persist.[10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.