توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s high temperature on 23 July will be decided by how quickly the city warms after a humid overnight period and whether afternoon cloud cover or showers cap the peak. In late-July Houston, the climate baseline is already near the upper 20s Celsius, with average July temperatures around 77°F to 96°F and roughly 9 to 10 rainy days in the month, so the market is really about where within a familiar hot range the day finishes rather than whether it gets warm at all.[2]

The 0% YES price looks extreme against recent local conditions. A Houston past-weather report shows a 95°F high on a comparable summer day, with light winds, very high humidity and only modest pressure variation, which is consistent with the sort of sticky, slow-cooling setup that often allows temperatures to push into the 90s even without a heatwave.[1] For a market tied to the day’s highest reading at Hobby Airport, the main historical question is whether a synoptic setup produces enough sunshine and mixing to break above the usual mid-90s band, or whether clouds and rain keep the peak lower.[1][2]

The key catalysts are the morning forecast cycle, any heat advisory or thunderstorm wording from local forecasters, and the evolution of cloud and rain chances through the afternoon. Because the settlement source is the William P. Hobby Airport station, traders should watch for any change in the airport-specific hourly outlook rather than broader Houston forecasts, since small shifts in late-morning cloud cover or a passing shower can move the day’s maximum by several degrees.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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