توقع: Highest temperature in London on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport’s top reading on 5 August will be set by how warm the air gets at midday and whether any cloud or a sea breeze trims the peak. The current market is clustering around **25–26°C**, which fits the live forecast picture better than the crowd’s 0% yes price suggests: Met Office-style guidance in the results points to a warm, fairly narrow range, while recent London forecasts for today also centre on **25°C** with sunny intervals. [1][3][9]

For context, this is not a setup that usually needs extreme heat to settle; a one- or two-degree miss from forecast can shift the winning band. London’s summer highs often sit in the low-to-mid 20s, and even in a warmer 2026, the strongest reading mentioned in the results so far is **26.6°C at Kew Gardens**, which is hot but still well below the city’s historic extremes. That makes the market more about whether the airport station can nudge above the forecast core than about any broader heatwave breakout. [7][14][17]

The main trader catalysts are the final-hours forecast updates, especially any change in cloud cover, wind direction, or timing of a weak frontal passage, because those are the factors the current model spread is already sensitive to. The market also resolves off the **highest temperature at London City Airport Station** on the day, with revisions counted until the first datapoint for the next date is published, so late station updates matter more than early-day readings. [1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in London on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.