توقع: Highest temperature in London on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 20 July 2026, a date that has already passed as today is 21 July 2026. The settlement window closed at 12:00 UTC on the event day, and the market has officially resolved with the leading outcome confirmed as 72–73°F (approximately 22–23°C) at 100% probability, rendering the 0% YES probability for any alternative outcome a reflection of this finality rather than a live forecast [1].

Historical July temperatures at London City Airport typically range between 18°C and 28°C, with extreme heatdays occasionally pushing above 30°C, but the resolved outcome of 22–23°C aligns with a mild, cloudy summer day rather than a heatwave. The 0% probability assigned to other ranges now serves as a post-resolution confirmation that no higher temperature was recorded, consistent with BBC Weather’s current reading of 13°C for the station, which reflects overnight cooling rather than the day’s peak [2].

Traders should note that no further catalysts exist for this market, as the resolution source—Wunderground’s historical daily data for EGLC—has already been processed and the outcome fixed. The market’s closure means all price movements are obsolete, and the 100% confidence in the 72–73°F band confirms the official record for that day is settled with no pending announcements or dependencies [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in London on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.