توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s highest temperature today will be judged against a climate that is usually warm but not extreme in August. Typical August highs in Munich sit around 24°C to 25°C, with average monthly highs near 74°F to 76°F, while daily highs generally ease from the mid-70s °F towards about 70°F as the month progresses.[1][2][5][8] The historical record shows there is room for spikes well above normal: Munich has posted August record highs of 38°C in 2003, and comparable summaries put the city’s August maximum record at 92°F in that same heatwave year.[6][8]

That backdrop helps explain why the current 1% Yes price is low: the market is not asking whether Munich reaches a pleasant summer afternoon, but whether the *day’s peak* at the airport station lands in the specific range the market defines. For context, climate tables for Munich-Maxvorstadt show average August daily maxima around 32.1°C for the month’s warmest daily readings, with the overall long-run August peak much higher at 33.8°C on average across annual maxima, underscoring that a hot outlier is possible but not the norm.[7] Forecast products for August 2026 still cluster around a more ordinary band, with daily highs forecast between 69°F and 81°F and an August average high of 76°F.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final local forecast updates, especially the chance of a brief hot surge if sunshine breaks through before afternoon showers or thunderstorms, which are a known feature of southern Germany’s late-summer pattern.[12][13] The key dependency is the intraday maximum before the market’s settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, so any morning cloud cover, wind shift, or convective rain band matters more than the full-day headline forecast.[1][12] Because the resolution source is Wunderground’s Munich Airport Station history page, the practical watchlist is the station-specific high forecast versus how often models push the airport above the upper end of the normal August range.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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