توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will contain the recorded high.

August in Munich typically produces daily highs between 24–28°C, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during heat waves. The city's climate pattern shows that temperatures above 30°C occur in roughly one in four Augusts, whilst readings exceeding 32°C are considerably rarer. Historical data from Munich Airport indicates that the warmest August day on record reached 37.3°C in 2015, providing an upper reference point for assessing probability distribution across the available ranges. Recent summers have trended warmer than the 30-year normal, though this remains within natural variability rather than representing a structural shift.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-August 2026 onwards, particularly high-pressure systems developing over central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, which will provide the first reliable indication of whether anticyclonic conditions favour above-average temperatures. Local factors including urban heat island effects at the airport and any unusual atmospheric patterns will influence the final reading. The resolution source's specificity—requiring Daily Observations rather than summary figures—means traders must verify exact methodology when comparing against other weather stations or forecast models.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.