توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich faces a critical heat check on 17 July 2026, as the market prices in a specific temperature band for the highest reading at Munich Airport Station. With the settlement window closing at noon UTC, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders are betting against the event resolving in the queried range, likely due to prevailing cool conditions. Current observations show Munich is mostly cloudy with a temperature of 61°F (approximately 16°C) and high humidity, indicating a significant gap between today’s reality and the high-temperature thresholds required for a positive resolution [2].

Historical data and recent market positioning frame this low probability against a backdrop where 29°C is the frontrunner outcome at 57%, followed by 28°C at 31% [1]. This distribution implies the market expects a warm day, yet the 0% YES probability suggests the specific range in question is either too low to be uncertain or too high to be plausible given current atmospheric trends. The divergence between the frontrunner predictions and the current 0% implies the market has already priced in a specific temperature ceiling that the queried range fails to meet, reflecting a consensus that the day will not reach the necessary intensity for a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station throughout the day [1]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the peak temperature, though the current cool and humid conditions make a rapid spike unlikely. The market’s reliance on this specific data point means that even minor fluctuations in the recorded maximum will determine the final outcome, with the 29°C threshold serving as the primary benchmark for market sentiment.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.