توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station on 11 August 2026, using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground as the primary source rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature range will be captured before resolution.

New York's August climate shows consistent patterns across decades. The city's average high in August sits around 27–28°C (81–82°F), with the 90th percentile of daily highs reaching approximately 32°C (90°F). Historical data from LaGuardia indicates that temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F) on any given August day occur in roughly 5–10% of years, whilst readings above 38°C (100°F) are rare events occurring perhaps once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation well below historical norms, likely reflecting either an unusually cool forecast window or conservative positioning ahead of the settlement date.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts and Climate Prediction Center outlooks as August 2026 approaches, particularly any signals regarding Atlantic tropical activity or heat dome formation in the northeastern United States. Upper-atmosphere patterns in early August typically determine whether high-pressure systems stall over the region, which would drive temperatures into the 32–35°C range. The specific resolution methodology—requiring Daily Observations data rather than Day High & Low summaries—means traders must verify LaGuardia's reporting practices, as occasional discrepancies between station instruments can affect marginal outcomes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.