توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 15 August 2026, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning final readings will be locked in by early morning Eastern Time.

New York's August heat patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. The historical record for 15 August at LaGuardia stands at 89°F (set in 1983), though the city has recorded temperatures exceeding 95°F on various August dates. The 30-year average high for mid-August in Manhattan sits around 82°F, with standard deviation of roughly 6–7 degrees. Recent decades have shown a modest warming trend, with August 2023 producing multiple days above 90°F and the summer of 2022 ranking among the hottest on record for the region.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models released in June and July 2026, particularly NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks for temperature anomalies across the Northeast. The Atlantic hurricane season's activity and positioning of high-pressure systems in early August will substantially influence whether tropical moisture or continental dry air dominates the region. Any significant heat dome formation across the eastern seaboard in the fortnight preceding 15 August would shift probabilities materially upward, whilst an active jet stream pattern steering cooler air southward would suppress extreme readings.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.