توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s highest temperature today will be set by the LaGuardia Airport station reading used for settlement, and the market is already leaning towards a moderate summer afternoon rather than an extreme heat spike. The crowd has been split around the low-to-mid 80s, with **82-83°F** and **84-85°F** both trading around 21%, while **90°F or higher** is still being priced as a live but less likely tail outcome at 34% in the broader distribution shown on Polymarket.[1]

That spread fits the recent pattern of New York summer heat: the city reached **100°F** in early July during a notable heat wave, but that was a peak event rather than the norm, and airport readings often differ from Central Park because of local siting and exposure.[6][9] For traders, the key issue is whether the final hours before the settlement window close bring any late-afternoon convection, sea-breeze suppression, or forecast revision that nudges LaGuardia above the mid-80s; recent daily history pages also show an **83°F** reading for New York City’s weather history entry, which underlines how quickly the market can cluster around a single-degree band when the day is not an outright scorcher.[2]

What matters now is the live forecast path into the afternoon and whether any National Weather Service or station-level update shifts the expected high before the window closes. A hotter-than-expected reading at LaGuardia would most likely come from stronger sunshine and weaker marine influence, whereas cloud cover or a coastal breeze would cap the top end and keep the settlement in the same narrow band the market has already gravitated towards.[10][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.