توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is the highest temperature reached at LaGuardia Airport on 3 August 2026, and the market is currently leaning far below the upper temperature bands. As of the live pricing, the crowd has **82–83°F** and **84–85°F** almost level at 35% and 33% respectively, while the zero-priced **YES** reading against the broader set of outcomes implies traders are treating an extreme high as very unlikely[1].

On comparable summer days in New York City, the decisive factor is usually whether the afternoon warms enough before cloud cover, sea breeze, or convection arrives. Historical August patterns show the city often finishing in the low-to-mid 80s, with occasional hotter spikes when the boundary layer stays mixed; recent climate summaries for New York still allow maxima well above 90°F in early August, but the market’s own guide suggests a more modest 82–85°F range, which keeps the contest concentrated around the middle bins rather than the tails[2][3][4].

For traders, the main catalysts are the National Weather Service forecast updates, any short-term model shifts, and the timing of showers or thunderstorms that can cap the day’s peak before mid-afternoon. CBS New York reported a storm and flash-flood threat across the NYC area on 3 August 2026, which matters because convective cloud cover can prevent the airport temperature from reaching the higher brackets even when the broader air mass is warm[12]. The market also notes that revisions to the day’s recorded temperatures will count until the first reading for the following date is published, so late data adjustments at LaGuardia remain relevant until the window closes[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.