توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City recorded its highest July 16 temperature at LaGuardia Airport, with the market now settling on the 88–89°F range as the definitive outcome. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any lower range reflects the consensus that summer heat in the region routinely exceeds 87°F during mid-July, aligning with the 100% probability assigned to the 88–89°F bracket on Polymarket [1].

Historical data from the National Weather Service confirms that LaGuardia’s mid-July highs frequently cluster between 88°F and 92°F, making the current market resolution consistent with long-term patterns [2]. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show similar peaks, reinforcing that a sub-87°F result would be an outlier rather than a norm, which explains the near-zero probability assigned to lower ranges.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily archive for the official settlement figure, as it is the designated resolution source for this market [1]. While no immediate weather announcements are pending post-settlement, the smoky conditions noted in recent LaGuardia forecasts could influence future heat trends if they persist into late July [3]. The market’s closure at 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z means no further data will alter the outcome, locking in the 88–89°F result as final.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.