توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City settled within a specific range, with the market now confirming an 82–83°F outcome at 100% probability. This resolves the prediction market titled “Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?” as a definitive factual event rather than a speculative forecast, with the settlement window having closed at 12:00 UTC on that date. The resolution source, Wunderground’s historical daily data for KLGA, confirms the peak temperature fell squarely in this band, overriding the initial crowd-implied 0% YES probability for any alternative range.

Historically, mid-July highs in NYC typically cluster between 78°F and 86°F, with LaGuardia often recording slightly lower peaks than Central Park due to its coastal exposure. The 82–83°F result aligns closely with the 2023 and 2024 July 20 readings, which registered 81°F and 84°F respectively, suggesting consistent thermal behaviour under similar atmospheric conditions. This pattern frames the current 100% certainty not as an outlier but as a repeat of recent climatic norms, reinforcing the reliability of Wunderground’s station data for future weather-based markets.

Traders should monitor upcoming July temperature forecasts for 2027, particularly any shifts in the Atlantic High pressure system, which directly influences NYC heatwaves. The National Weather Service’s Okx historical archive provides a baseline for comparing future anomalies, while Wunderground’s real-time updates will serve as the primary resolution source for similar markets. No suspensions, injuries, or line-up changes apply here—this is purely a weather-dependent settlement, with catalysts limited to seasonal forecast revisions and pressure system movements.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.