توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit. Resolution data comes from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and station, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on the day itself.

New York's July temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F at LaGuardia, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The city experienced a peak of 96°F on 9 July 2019 and 94°F on 22 July 2011, establishing the upper bounds of plausible outcomes for midsummer conditions. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that temperatures exceeding 95°F occur roughly once every three to four years during July in the metropolitan area, making extreme heat an outlier rather than baseline expectation. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that historical frequency data does not support as likely.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast for the New York region as mid-July 2026 approaches, particularly any heat dome or high-pressure system warnings issued 7–10 days prior. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia—situated near tarmac and concrete—can elevate readings 2–3°F above surrounding areas during stagnant, sunny conditions. Atlantic tropical activity patterns and the North Atlantic Oscillation phase will influence whether blocking high-pressure systems establish themselves over the Northeast during this window.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.