توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The LaGuardia Airport weather station will record the day's peak temperature on 28 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical data archive for that date. This market resolves to whichever temperature band captures the highest reading across all hours at KLGA, measured in Fahrenheit.

New York City's July temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome at the extreme upper end of the resolution bands—likely above 95°F or higher thresholds. Historical July data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur in roughly 40% of years, whilst readings above 95°F are considerably rarer, appearing in approximately 15% of July records over the past three decades. The current probability assignment indicates the crowd views an exceptionally hot day as highly unlikely for this specific date.

Traders should monitor Atlantic weather patterns through mid-July 2026, particularly the positioning of high-pressure systems and any tropical activity that might influence northeastern conditions. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days ahead, will provide the first concrete directional signals. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia—situated near built-up areas—can amplify readings compared to surrounding regions, a factor worth considering when assessing seasonal normals against specific day outcomes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.