توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the **highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 30 July 2026**, and the market is currently pricing the outcome as extremely unlikely to land in the upper bands, with **0% YES** implied for the headline selection. That sits against a fairly ordinary late-July climatology: historical station data for LaGuardia put the average high on 30 July at **86.1°F**, but the same series shows a wide tail, including a lowest recorded daily high of **73.9°F** and a highest of **100.0°F** on that date in 2025.[12]

For framing, New York’s late-July heat can still produce outsized highs, but not every hot spell reaches the kind of extremes that move these markets. Central Park has only very occasionally touched 100°F, most recently during the early-July 2026 heat wave, and the city’s all-time highs are well above the daily band normally relevant here.[4][17] That history matters because the market is not about the headline citywide feel; it settles on the maximum reading at LaGuardia, where airport siting and sea-breeze effects can keep readings a little different from Manhattan proper.[6][12]

What traders should watch is the midday evolution of the forecast and any last-minute heat advisories or convective cloud cover that cap afternoon warming. The market description says revisions to observed temperatures are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late data updates can still matter if the station’s final high is adjusted after the initial print.[1] The current crowd split is concentrated in the mid-to-upper 70s and upper 70s/lower 80s, which implies the market is expecting a warm but not exceptional afternoon rather than a sustained surge into the 90s.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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