توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s highest temperature on 6 August is being priced as a **25–26°C** event, with the crowd currently leaning to 26°C and the wider Paris forecast showing a mid-20s cap rather than a severe heat spike. AccuWeather’s monthly view has Paris at **81°F/61°F** for the day, while the live market page itself says traders are clustering around **26°C** on the basis of stable anticyclonic conditions and clear-to-partly cloudy skies.[2][3]

That makes the present **0% YES** crowd-implied probability hard to reconcile with the broader summer pattern: August in Paris usually produces highs in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, and recent comparable forecasts have repeatedly sat near 25–26°C rather than extreme values.[6][9] After June’s exceptional heat across France, including Paris reaching **40.9°C** during the 2026 heatwave, a normal early-August reading would still be far below the period’s extremes.[12][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the late-day forecast updates, any short-notice convection or shower risk, and the final published station reading used by the market’s resolution source at Paris-Le Bourget Airport.[13][3] The market rules note that revisions to temperatures within the settlement window count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late adjustments in the official archive matter more than generic city forecasts.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.