توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on 10 August 2026, using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the upper range bracket being offered, or that the market's range structure leaves no viable outcome.

Seattle's August climate typically peaks between 75–80°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching the mid-80s. The city's maritime influence moderates summer temperatures compared to inland Pacific Northwest regions. Looking at comparable August 10th dates from recent years provides calibration: the National Weather Service records show Seattle rarely exceeds 85°F on any given August day, with temperatures above 90°F occurring fewer than three times per decade during this month. The 0% implied probability suggests the highest temperature bracket on offer—likely 90°F or above—sits well beyond the seasonal norm for this specific date.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast for the Pacific Northwest as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly any heat dome or high-pressure system predictions that could drive unusual warmth into the region. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 may influence broader temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 August, meaning the market resolves based on temperatures recorded through that point; afternoon heat spikes after noon UTC would not factor into resolution, a timing detail that could matter if borderline conditions develop.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.