توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s high on 4 August was the key number, with the market settled from the highest reading recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport rather than the city as a whole.[4] The crowd has been leaning to a cooler outcome, with a 0% YES implied probability pointing to a very low expectation of an extreme temperature print compared with the normal August range in Seattle.[10][14]

Historically, Seattle’s August temperatures cluster well below heatwave territory, with AccuWeather’s August table showing recent early-month highs around 75°F to 81°F and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.[1] WeatherSpark’s August climate pages also frame the month as warm but not typically extreme, so a market pricing close to zero for a very high outcome is consistent with the city’s usual late-summer pattern rather than a one-off spike.[10][14] For traders, the key read-through is whether the day clears the low-80s threshold, since that is where the market’s plausible bins tend to sit on temperature boards for Seattle events.[3][4]

The main catalysts are the official airport observations and any forecast updates into the day, especially if marine air, smoke, or a stronger warm push alters the afternoon peak.[3][4] Polymarket’s market page notes that revisions are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late changes to the recorded maximum can still matter before settlement.[3] Robinhood’s contract description also confirms the source as Weather Underground’s Seattle-Tacoma Intl Airport Station, which makes the airport-specific hourly path more important than headlines about Seattle broadly.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.