توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is expected to record a high near 64–65°F on 16 July 2026, aligning with the market’s frontrunner outcome that now commands 100% probability. This reflects typical mid-July conditions for the region, where coastal influence and prevailing marine layers usually cap daytime highs well below extreme heat thresholds.

Historical data from recent years shows Seattle’s July highs at KSEA rarely exceed 70°F, with 64–65°F falling squarely within the common range for this period. The current 0% probability assigned to any outcome below 61°F or above 65°F suggests traders view significant deviations as highly improbable, consistent with long-term climate normals for the Puget Sound area.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the Pacific Northwest, particularly any shifts in marine layer strength or incoming high-pressure systems that could alter temperature trajectories. A sudden breakdown in coastal cloud cover or a surge of continental air could push temperatures higher, though such events remain rare in mid-July. No immediate weather alerts have been issued for the Seattle area as of 17 July 2026, supporting the market’s confidence in the 64–65°F range [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.