توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is the settlement point, so the market will turn on the *single highest hourly or daily reading* recorded there on 23 July rather than Seattle’s broader metropolitan weather.[3] July in Seattle is usually warm but not extreme: typical highs are around 24°C/75°F, with night-time lows near 14°C/57°F, which makes the upper end of the distribution more relevant than the average.[1] That profile helps explain why an implied 0% YES price can persist for a specific threshold range if the contract is set well above the normal summer ceiling.

Historical framing points to a city that spends much of July in the mid-70s Fahrenheit, with 26°C/79°F or so still within some forecast guides, but not the norm.[1][2] For this market, the key question is not whether Seattle gets a pleasant summer afternoon, but whether a genuine warm spike lands at the airport and is captured in the Wunderground history feed used for resolution.[3] Because the endpoint is a daily maximum at a coastal, maritime-influenced airport, traders usually focus on whether conditions support a brief surge above climatological norms rather than on the day’s mean temperature.[1]

The main catalysts are any late-season heat signals in regional forecasts, especially if high pressure builds over western Washington and suppresses marine influence. Airport-specific outcomes can differ from central Seattle because onshore flow, cloud cover, and timing of the daily sea breeze often cap the maximum, so the exact observation window matters as much as the broader forecast.[1][3] Traders should watch the official NOAA time-series for KSEA and any updated local forecast packages into the settlement day, since a small shift in cloud timing or wind direction can move the peak temperature enough to change the bucket it falls into.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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