توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in late August sits firmly within the region's summer monsoon season, with the Korean peninsula typically experiencing peak heat and humidity before the autumn transition. August 20th historically falls during a period when daily highs in Incheon average around 29–31°C, though extreme heat waves can push temperatures several degrees higher. The resolution mechanism specifies data from Incheon International Airport Station's Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, which captures granular hourly readings rather than rounded summary figures—a distinction that matters when temperatures cluster near threshold boundaries.

Comparable August 20th records at Incheon show variability across recent decades. The station has recorded highs ranging from 26°C in cooler years to 34°C during pronounced heat events, with the 2010s and early 2020s trending toward warmer extremes as part of broader East Asian climate patterns. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or uncertainty about the exact settlement methodology, despite the market's explicit reliance on Daily Observations data rather than summary highs.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and watch for any mid-August heat dome developments across Northeast Asia in the weeks preceding August 20th, 2026. Typhoon activity or monsoon intensity shifts in early-to-mid August could materially alter temperature trajectories. The specificity of using airport station data—which may differ slightly from central Seoul readings—also warrants attention to any station maintenance or sensor recalibration notices that could affect recorded values.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.