توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer weather in late August typically sits in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with August 21 falling near the tail end of the region's hottest period. Incheon International Airport, the designated measurement station, records temperatures that reflect broader metropolitan conditions rather than urban heat island effects that might elevate readings in central Seoul. The settlement mechanism relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated systems occasionally flag outliers or when intraday peaks diverge from official high-low ranges.

Historical August 21 data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2010 and 2024, recorded highs ranged from 26.5°C to 32.8°C, with the median around 29–30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about the specific threshold bands available in this market's resolution brackets. Late August in Seoul typically experiences monsoon influence or post-monsoon humidity, which can suppress afternoon peaks even when morning temperatures climb sharply.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's forecasts from mid-August, particularly any alerts regarding typhoon activity or upper-atmosphere pressure systems that could redirect heat patterns. The two-week lead time before settlement allows for meaningful forecast refinement. Humidity levels and cloud cover on the day itself will prove decisive; overcast conditions typical of late-summer monsoon transitions could cap highs below the historical median, explaining the current market scepticism toward higher temperature bands.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.