توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon International Airport’s highest temperature on 3 August is likely to be decided by a hot, stable airmass rather than any abrupt weather front. Current Korean forecasts point to a broad heatwave across the capital area, with Seoul under a heatwave warning and daytime highs around 37°C, while Incheon is forecast nearer 34°C, still well above the seasonal norm.[1][2] That makes a low-end settlement band harder to justify unless cloud, sea breeze or showers cap the afternoon peak earlier than expected.[1][2]

The historical frame also leans warm: August is typically Seoul’s hottest month, with average highs around 30–31°C and very high muggy-day frequency, including the highest chance of a muggy day falling on 3 August.[16][18][19] Short-term commercial and media forecasts for early August are clustered in the mid-30s for Seoul and low- to mid-30s for Incheon, which supports the market’s bias towards an elevated result rather than a cool outlier.[2][9][12] A 0% yes price implies the crowd sees almost no path to an extremely high range, but the broader regional heat pattern keeps the upper bins live if the westward-shifting heat intensifies.[1]

Traders should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration updates and any same-day changes to the short-range forecast, especially the timing of easterly winds, which SBS said are heating areas west of the mountains further this week.[1][4] The main dependency is whether afternoon cloud cover or local showers reach the capital area; national forecasts mention rain mainly farther south, with Incheon listed as mostly cloudy then clear and 34°C, while Seoul is forecast 37°C.[2][8] Any stronger sea-breeze suppression or an earlier coastal cloud deck would matter because the market resolves to the day’s recorded maximum, not the forecast high, so the exact afternoon temperature curve is more important than the morning reading.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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