توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Incheon airport reading for 5 August sits in the same late-summer heat regime as Seoul, with the latest Korean weather coverage flagging a severe heat warning across the capital area and daytime highs around 38°C in Seoul today. That makes a *zero* chance on the market’s 5 August maximum look detached from the prevailing weather pattern, because the region is already inside one of its hottest stretches and the airport station is unlikely to be insulated from that broad-scale warmth.[1][15]

Historically, August in Seoul is among the hottest periods of the year, with typical daytime highs around the high 20s to near 30°C and occasional extremes above 38°C. That matters for a settlement tied to the day’s high rather than the noon reading: when the synoptic setup is hot and humid, the maximum often arrives in mid to late afternoon, and even a modestly cooler marine influence near Incheon does not usually pull the day’s high anywhere near cold-season values.[2][15][19]

The main catalysts to watch are the Korean Meteorological Administration short-range updates and any changes to the current heat warning, cloud cover, or showers affecting western parts of the peninsula. SBS notes that showers are possible in parts of western regions today, but also says the intense heat is expected to persist day and night, so traders should watch whether cloud/rain timing trims the peak temperature by a degree or two rather than breaking the broader hot trend.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.