توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s August heat profile makes a **0% YES** start look consistent with the base rate rather than a live signal, because the city’s normal early-August highs sit around 30°C and the 8 August record high is 36.0°C, which is well above the typical outcome but still within the range seen in severe heat spells.[1][2] Current forecasts are materially hotter than average: one source has Seoul at 34.6°C on 8 August 2026, while another shows highs around 97°F/36.1°C, implying the market is really about whether the airport station gets a brief spike into the top band rather than an ordinary hot day.[1][3]

For traders, the key catalyst is the afternoon maximum at **Incheon Intl Airport Station**, because the contract settles off the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the broader day summary, so late-day surges can still matter if the cap is reached before the settlement window closes.[4][11] The main dependencies are cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any updated short-range forecast in the hours before noon UTC; August in Seoul is also the peak rain-and-humidity period, which can suppress maxima even when the air mass is hot.[2][5] Weather Underground’s history pages already show the airport-station framework used for Seoul, so traders should watch for the specific station observations rather than citywide headlines or summary highs.[4][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.