توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is set to experience its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official benchmark for the day’s highest temperature. The market currently assigns a 99% probability to the outcome of 31°C, while the chance of temperatures reaching 32°C or higher sits at just 1%, reflecting a strong consensus that extreme record-breaking heat is unlikely despite the season’s intensity.

Historical data shows that early July in Seoul has recently seen record highs, including a 37.7°C spike in 2025—the hottest day in 117 years for that period[2]. However, that extreme was an anomaly tied to specific atmospheric conditions, and typical mid-July highs at Incheon Airport usually hover around 30–32°C. The current 0% probability for any outcome above 31°C suggests traders are pricing in a return to more moderate, seasonal norms rather than another record-shattering event.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground as the day progresses, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could push temperatures higher. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July, so final readings must be confirmed before that deadline. No major weather alerts have been issued yet, but local meteorological bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration remain the primary dependency for validating the final resolution[1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.