توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with the monsoon season (jangma) typically concluding by mid-month. The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 18 July will determine the settlement range, measured against historical records for this specific date and location.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows July 18 temperatures have ranged between 26°C and 33°C over the past two decades, with an average high around 29–30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an exceptionally cool outcome or uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable July 18 readings from 2015–2024 indicate that temperatures below 26°C occur in roughly 15% of cases, typically during years when early monsoon remnants or cold fronts persist into mid-July.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) released in the week preceding 18 July 2026, as these will clarify whether high-pressure systems or residual monsoon moisture dominate. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and any tropical cyclone activity tracking towards the Korean peninsula will be critical variables. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 18 July, so final forecasts issued on the morning of the event will be most relevant to late-stage trading decisions.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.