توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is entering its peak summer heatwave period, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official benchmark for the city’s highest daily temperature. The market asks whether the peak on 20 July 2026 will fall into a specific range, but the crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will stay well below the threshold in question. This aligns with historical patterns where July highs in Seoul typically average 28°C, though extreme spikes have occurred, including a record 37.1°C in early July 2024—the highest ever recorded for that period [1].

Recent climate data shows July 2025 was the second-hottest July on record for South Korea, with a nationwide average of 27.1°C, indicating a warming trend that could push Seoul’s peak temperatures higher than usual [2]. However, the 0% probability implies the market expects conditions to remain within the typical 28–32°C band rather than breach extreme thresholds. Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover can cap peak temperatures [3].

Key catalysts include the timing of monsoon rains, which are most frequent in July with a 43% daily precipitation chance, and any sudden shifts in wind patterns that could moderate heat [3]. A heatwave announcement from the KMA or a spike in regional humidity readings would be the primary signals to reassess the probability. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, traders must watch for the final morning forecast before the day’s peak temperature is recorded at Incheon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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