توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 26?

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Market context

The highest temperature at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 26 July is likely to be shaped more by showers and marine influence than by the national heat headline. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s July 26 outlook called for 10–50 mm of rain in Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi and Gangwon, with daytime highs around 31°C in the Seoul–Gyeonggi area, while a separate report said Incheon was forecast to reach about 34°C on the day, making an outright blow-up into the upper 30s less likely than in inland south-eastern cities.[1][5]

The market’s current 0% YES on the highest-temperature range looks aggressive only if the settlement bands are centred on very high readings, because the nearby comparable cases point to mid-30s rather than exceptional heat at the airport. On 26 July, southern cities such as Daegu were forecast around 37°C and some regions were reported as having touched 39°C during the weekend, but the capital region was expected to sit several degrees cooler and under passing rain, which usually suppresses the daily maximum at a coastal airport station.[2][4] Longer-run July climatology for Seoul also points to typical daytime maxima around 28°C with frequent rainfall, reinforcing that a hot day does not automatically translate into a top-bin reading at this venue.[6][7]

The main catalysts are the timing and intensity of the showers over the capital region, plus any late KMA updates to the rain band and cloud cover forecast before the settlement window closes. The latest reporting said rain was expected in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi on July 27 as well, with highs of 26–33°C in Seoul and 26–33°C in Busan, suggesting the broader pattern remained unsettled rather than locked into a clear, dry heat spike.[2] If the airport stays under cloud and rain through the afternoon, the realised maximum should stay closer to the low-30s; if rainfall clears earlier, the ceiling rises modestly, but the evidence still leans away from extreme-top outcomes.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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