توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer climate in late July sits firmly within the region's monsoon season, when the Korean peninsula experiences peak heat and humidity ahead of the August peak. Historical records from Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station for this market—show that temperatures on 28 July have ranged between 26°C and 32°C over the past two decades, with the median high around 29–30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an extremely narrow or implausible outcome rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether Seoul will record *some* temperature on that date.

The key variable is which temperature bracket the highest reading will fall into, not whether heat will occur. Incheon's July 28 records show that exceeding 31°C happens in roughly half of years, whilst temperatures below 27°C are rare but possible during unusually wet monsoon phases. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks before the settlement date; traders should monitor their mid-July outlook for any signals of anomalous atmospheric patterns—either a stalled high-pressure system pushing temperatures toward 33°C+ or an unusually active monsoon trough keeping conditions cooler and more humid.

Current atmospheric indices suggest normal seasonal conditions are most likely, making the historical distribution the primary guide. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 July, meaning the highest temperature recorded at Incheon up to that point will determine the outcome.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.