توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s daytime heat at the airport station is the key reference here, and August in the city is normally a hot, humid month with average highs around 31-33°C and frequent rain interruptions. Historical August data for Shanghai point to typical early-month highs in the low 30s, with the first of the month often landing around 30.7°C on one published climate table, while the month’s record heat can reach 40°C or slightly above during extreme outbreaks.[1][2][8]

That context makes the current 0% YES price look conservative rather than impossible: the market is settled on the *single highest reading* at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station by 12:00 UTC, so even a short-lived afternoon surge can matter if conditions line up. Shanghai has a documented history of severe summer heat, including recent red heat alerts and past days near 40°C in the wider city, although airport readings can differ from downtown extremes because of local exposure, wind, and cloud cover.[7][8][11]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast, cloud cover, and any rain or typhoon-related disturbance over eastern China, because those can cap the daytime peak or shift the hottest hour outside the settlement window. Traders should also watch official Shanghai weather updates and airport-area forecasts for whether the city stays under a heat dome or gets relief from convection, since August temperatures commonly sit in the low 30s even without a full heatwave.[1][5][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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