توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or an expectation that extreme heat thresholds are unlikely during mid-August in Shanghai.

August represents peak summer in Shanghai, with historical data from Pudong showing average daily highs between 32–34°C during this period. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent heat through the month, though specific daily temperatures vary based on monsoon patterns and atmospheric pressure systems. Comparable August readings from recent years—including 2023 and 2024—fell predominantly within the 30–36°C band, with occasional excursions above 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be pricing in either a cooler-than-typical pattern or simply reflect low market liquidity rather than genuine conviction about temperature outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track weather forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international models, which typically show 10–14 day reliability windows. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst persistent high-pressure systems would drive readings toward the upper end of the historical range. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table—rather than summary high-low figures—requires confirmation of which specific measurement protocol Weather Underground applies at the Pudong station.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.