توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s 3 August heat is the key driver for this market, because the contract settles on the day’s highest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, not a citywide average. Current forecasts cluster in the mid-30s Celsius, with AccuWeather showing Shanghai’s August highs typically ranging from 82°F to 92°F and several early-August outlooks sitting around 35°C to 37°C; that puts a sub-37°C outcome in line with the month’s normal range, but still leaves room for a hotter hourly spike if sunshine dominates before storms develop.[1][6][14]

That historical framing matters because Shanghai in August is usually hot, humid and volatile rather than steadily extreme. Long-run August guides put typical daytime highs around 31°C to 34°C, while comparable 2025 reporting cited a 39°C peak late in the month, showing that outlier heat can happen even when the monthly average is lower.[12][14] With the market currently implying 0% for YES, traders are effectively pricing in a reading outside the listed temperature bands, which is a very low bar only if the forecast source has already shifted materially cooler than the broader weather outlooks.[1][5]

The main catalysts are the overnight and early-morning forecast updates, plus any change in thunderstorm timing or cloud cover at Pudong, since those can cap the day’s maximum even when the air mass remains hot.[2][6] The Hong Kong government’s mainland city bulletin placed Shanghai at 29–37°C with cloudy conditions, while other services showed patchy rain or light thunderstorms for 3 August, so the trade will move most on whether the hottest part of the day holds near the upper 30s or gets trimmed by rain and convection.[2][6][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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