توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s **4 August** maximum at Pudong will be set by the day’s highest observed temperature, so the key question is whether the airport reaches a routine hot-season high or gets pushed by a short-lived heat spike. Seasonal guides for Shanghai put August daytime highs mostly in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, with heat and humidity common and occasional peaks well above average, while forecast pages for 4 August cluster around about **33–34°C** for the city more broadly.[1][3][8][17][18]

That framing makes the current **0% YES** crowd view look conservative rather than implausible: the market only needs one reading in the relevant range, and Shanghai’s August climatology regularly sits close to or above 30°C.[1][4][5] Comparable forecast pages for 4 August point to a hot afternoon and limited rain risk, which supports the idea that the airport could still print a temperature in the upper-20s to mid-30s rather than stay muted all day.[2][3][10][16] Historical August data also show occasional extremes around the high-30s Celsius, so a hotter-than-forecast outcome is not out of pattern for this time of year.[13][17]

What traders should watch is whether updated short-range forecasts keep the afternoon peak intact, and whether cloud cover, showers or sea-breeze effects trim the daytime maximum at Pudong versus central Shanghai. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Shanghai highs ranging from **82°F to 92°F** overall, and the 4 August daily forecast pages are already pointing to a very warm day, so any late shift towards more cloud or rain would matter for the final maximum.[1][7][3] The settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, so intraday timing matters: a brief early-afternoon surge can settle the market even if conditions ease later.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.