توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s key risk is a late-summer heat spike at Pudong airport, not a broad season-long average. August is typically the city’s hottest month, with average highs around 32°C, and several reference guides put the normal early-August high in the low 30s Celsius, while the city’s broader all-time heat records have reached about 40.8–41°C in past August events.[2][6][9][19]

That history matters because this market resolves to the *highest* reading on the day, so a brief midday surge is enough to land in a higher band even if morning or evening conditions are milder. The current crowd-implied 0% for YES looks detached from the climatology: recent August forecasts and monthly guides still point to ordinary highs in the 31–34°C area, but Shanghai has repeatedly shown the capacity to overshoot those levels during heatwave episodes, including a 40.4°C reading during a recent alert period and the 40.8°C city record on 7 August 2013.[1][7][8][4]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast, any official heat alerts, and the timing of cloud cover or rain, which can cap the maximum temperature even when humidity stays high. Traders should watch whether Shanghai’s meteorological authorities extend or upgrade heat warnings, and whether forecast models shift the afternoon peak towards the upper 30s rather than the low 30s; the market is settled on the airport station’s observed maximum, so the final number depends on local conditions at Pudong rather than the city average.[8][15][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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