توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s high on 9 August is being priced as a near-certainty for the lower temperature band, but the broader August climatology still allows a meaningful afternoon spike if clouds thin out. Shanghai’s August average high is about 87°F, with typical daily highs clustering in the mid-30s Celsius, and some outlooks for this date still show a high around 32–34°C before rain arrives later in the day.[1][8][16][18] That makes the current 0% YES crowd price understandable only if the market’s range is anchored well above the forecast centre; otherwise, it is unusually dismissive of a warm-season Shanghai reading.

Comparable August cases in Shanghai usually resolve in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than at the extreme upper end, because humidity and shower activity often cap the day’s peak before sunset.[2][6][11] The key comparison is not the headline “day high” but the highest observation on the station log: if the warmest hour lands before convective rain builds, the recorded maximum can still beat the more conservative summary forecast.[3] On the current forecast mix, that leaves the outcome sensitive to whether the airport station briefly touches the forecast ceiling or stays several degrees lower.

For traders, the main catalysts are the timing and intensity of rainfall, cloud cover and wind shifts at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, because those can suppress the station’s true daily maximum even when the broader city remains muggy.[3][6][11][13] Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table is the settlement source, so any late-morning update, radar trend or station observation around the warmest part of the day matters more than the summary high shown elsewhere.[3] If forecasts are correct on heavy rain and persistent cloud, the upper temperature band weakens further; if the rain arrives later than expected, the station can still post a materially higher reading.[3][7][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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