توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s July climate is defined by intense heat and humidity, with the city routinely experiencing peak temperatures above 35°C during mid-month. The market in question concerns the highest temperature recorded on 16 July 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, a date that falls squarely within the region’s hottest period. Historical data shows that July 16 has frequently seen highs between 34°C and 38°C in recent years, making a 0% probability for any outcome highly inconsistent with seasonal norms.

Comparable cases from the past five years reveal that temperatures on 16 July have rarely dipped below 32°C, with several instances exceeding 37°C. For example, in 2023 and 2024, Shanghai recorded highs of 38°C and 37°C respectively on or near this date. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests either a data error or a misunderstanding of the settlement mechanics, as no credible forecast would rule out all temperature ranges for a mid-July day in Shanghai.

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, particularly as the settlement window approaches. Any sudden shifts in forecast models from agencies like Meteoblue or AccuWeather could signal emerging trends. A recent Meteoblue forecast for Shanghai Pudong indicates a maximum of 38°C for today, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures in the coming days. Watch for official announcements from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, which may issue heat advisories if temperatures approach record levels.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.