توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing a humid, muggy day with temperatures hovering around 31°C, yet the real-world event in question concerns the peak heat expected at Pudong International Airport on this specific date in 2026. The market’s 0% probability for a "YES" outcome implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely anticipating a lower peak due to the high chance of precipitation and scattered thunderstorms forecast for the afternoon. Historical data for mid-July in Shanghai typically sees highs between 34°C and 38°C, but the immediate weather pattern suggests cloud cover and rain will suppress the maximum temperature significantly below the usual summer extremes [1][2].

Traders should monitor the hourly temperature updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the settlement depends entirely on the highest recorded figure for all times on 20 July 2026 at the Pudong station. The presence of a 70% chance of precipitation and local thunderstorms acts as the primary catalyst that could cap the temperature, potentially preventing it from reaching the upper thresholds often seen in previous years [2]. With visibility at 8000m and scattered clouds, the atmospheric conditions are distinct from the clear, dry heatwaves that usually drive temperatures toward 38°C, making the current overcast conditions a critical factor in the final resolution [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.