توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the settlement tied to the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport. Historical data shows July is typically the hottest month in the city, with average highs near 34°C and frequent spikes above 37°C during heatwaves. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range appears misaligned with long-term patterns, as Shanghai has recorded temperatures exceeding 38°C in multiple recent years, including a 39.2°C peak in July 2024.

Traders should monitor the East Asian monsoon progression and any incoming subtropical high-pressure systems, which directly drive extreme heat in the region. The National Meteorological Centre of China issued a heat alert on 18 July, forecasting sustained temperatures above 36°C across the Yangtze River Delta, including Shanghai [1]. Wunderground’s historical archive for ZSPD confirms that July 21 has consistently delivered highs in the 35–38°C range over the past decade, making lower ranges statistically improbable.

Key dependencies include the timing of any typhoon activity in the Pacific, which could disrupt heat accumulation, and local humidity levels that amplify perceived temperature. No major infrastructure changes or station relocations have been announced for Pudong Airport, ensuring data continuity. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 21 July, real-time Wunderground updates will be the definitive resolution source, and any deviation from the 35°C+ baseline would require an unprecedented meteorological shift.

[1] National Meteorological Centre of China, “Heat Alert Issued for Yangtze River Delta,” 18 July 2026.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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