توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature at Pudong Airport on 24 July will be set by the day’s peak reading, with the market resolved against Wunderground’s history page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station. The current 0% YES price implies the crowd is not expecting an extreme heat outcome, but that is a weak signal for a summer Shanghai reading because late-July conditions are typically hot, humid and prone to convective showers rather than decisively cool. July normals in Shanghai sit around 32°C for highs, with travel and climate guides describing the month as hot and rainy, and WeatherSpark showing muggy-day likelihood at or near 100% by late July.[3][8][9]

Comparable forecasts point to a broad 32-37°C envelope rather than any sharp cold spell. Shanghai’s short-range outlook has recently shown highs in the mid-30s Celsius, including 35°C/95°F on one day and around 37°C at maximum daytime levels in another forecast source, which is consistent with a summer pattern that can still support a high daily maximum even when showers arrive later.[1][6] That makes the practical question not whether it will be warm, but whether cloud cover, rain timing and sea-breeze effects suppress the afternoon peak below the upper-30s Celsius band.

The main trader watchlist is the intraday forecast evolution: the timing of any thunderstorms, the amount of sunshine before midday, and whether the afternoon remains dry long enough for the airport station to register its maximum before showers develop. Current hourly and ten-day guidance for Shanghai shows warm, humid air, intermittent cloud and a material chance of afternoon storms, with one source flagging 50% precipitation and another showing 0% in the present hour, so the settled high could swing by several degrees depending on when convection builds.[4][5] Airport-specific observations matter more than citywide forecasts, because a locally timed shower can cap the official maximum even if broader Shanghai stays hot.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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