توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 26 July 2026 will be measured against a late-July climate pattern that is usually hot, humid and often unsettled. Shanghai’s July weather is typically around 28°C on average, with published seasonal guides putting the monthly high near 32°C and noting that summer heat can exceed 35°C in some years.[1][3]

That makes a 0% yes price easy to understand only if the market is being read as an extreme-temperature outcome, but it is not enough on its own to rule out a hot day. Shanghai sits in a subtropical monsoon zone, with summer running from June to September and typhoon-season weather often arriving from late July into September, bringing heavy rain and cloud cover even when the air mass remains warm.[3] Comparable July guides also suggest that the most comfortable window is often before 11:00 or after 17:00, implying that the daily high is usually reached in a relatively tight afternoon period rather than across the whole day.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the actual hourly observations at the airport station and any short-term weather shifts affecting the Pearl River Delta-style summer pattern is not the issue here; what matters is whether Shanghai gets a clean, sunny heat build-up or a rain-cooled, cloudier day. The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, so forecasts, typhoon tracking, and the timing of any passing showers matter more than the city-wide average.[3] A late arriving thunderstorm can cap the day’s high, while a dry, stagnant air mass can push the maximum towards the upper 30s in Celsius.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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