توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen Bao’an is in its hottest stretch of the year, and the market will settle on the day’s **highest recorded temperature** at the airport station rather than the mean or evening reading. Historical August normals cluster around **31-32°C** for the daily high, with typical highs near **89-90°F** and lows around **79-81°F**, which is why the crowd’s 0% YES implies an outcome well outside the usual summer envelope.[2][10][13]

Comparable August guides point to a fairly tight but still heat-prone distribution: average highs sit around **90°F**, while some sources show day-specific August highs in the **mid-90s°F** on the warmest dates, and one weather-history source cites a recorded August maximum of **103°F** in Shenzhen.[1][4][8] That gives traders a frame: anything in the low- to mid-30s Celsius is normal, but a genuinely extreme spike is the sort of tail event that can move a temperature-range market quickly.[1][4][8]

The main catalysts are local weather drivers rather than team-news style updates: cloud cover, rainfall bands, and especially typhoon-related systems in the South China Sea can cap the daytime high or, if they clear late, allow a hotter peak before settlement.[18] Because the window closes at **12:00 UTC**, the first half of the local afternoon is what matters most; the airport reading on Wunderground can still move materially if showers arrive early or if heat builds under clearer skies.[18][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.