توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s peak temperature on 3 August will be set by what the airport station actually records through the local afternoon, with the market resolving on the day’s highest reading at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station. Early-August climatology points to a warm, humid, rain-prone set-up: typical highs sit around 31–32°C, with monthly rainfall high enough that short-lived showers or cloud cover can easily cap the maximum below the most heated forecasts.[1][12]

That context helps explain why the crowd’s 0% YES on an unfilled line should be read cautiously rather than literally. Recent comparable guidance for Shenzhen has clustered the day’s high around 31–33°C, but the distribution is sensitive to cloud breaks, convection and lingering moisture, which can knock a degree or three off the top if showers arrive during the warmest part of the day.[1][3][5] In other words, the key question is not just how hot the air mass is, but whether the airport gets a clean, sunlit window long enough to reach the upper end of the range.[1][7]

For traders, the catalysts are the near-term forecast updates, radar trends and any shift in the rain timing over the Pearl River Delta. Fresh hourly guidance and station observations from Shenzhen Airport matter most once the morning cloud and rain pattern is clearer, because the market resolves on the airport’s daily maximum rather than a citywide average.[7][11] The official resolution note also matters: revisions can count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late corrections to the airport record remain relevant after the afternoon peak.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.