توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s late-July heat normally sits in the low 30s Celsius, with July averages around 31°C and a typical daily maximum near 32°C, so a settlement at the upper end of the usual range would fit the city’s summer climatology rather than an outlier move.[2][18][20] The market is tied to the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 31 July 2026, so the key issue is not the monthly average but whether the day produces a modest peak or a stronger afternoon surge at the airport station.[11][16]

Comparable July records show that Shenzhen can briefly spike well above its mean, with historical highs in the mid-30s Celsius and one cited July record of 36.4°C, while the long-term July pattern stays much closer to 31–32°C.[1][12][15] That makes a 0% crowd price easy to understand if the book is assuming an unusually cool or unsettled day, but the historical frame also shows that extremes above 34°C are well within Shenzhen’s summer envelope rather than exceptional.[1][15][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are the daytime temperature trend at the airport, cloud cover, and any rainfall or convection that cuts the afternoon maximum short; July in Shenzhen is also a wet month, with rainfall commonly reported around 200–250 mm and frequent rain days.[2][5][15] Because settlement is based on the Wunderground history page for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, the highest printed observation on that date is decisive, so intraday heat, thunderstorms, or a post-noon sea-breeze drop are the variables most likely to move the final range.[11][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.