توقع: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s top temperature on 22 July will be set by the daytime peak at Songshan Airport, with the market resolving from the highest reading shown in Wunderground’s daily history for RCSS. In mid-July, Taipei is usually driven more by hot, humid lowland air than by sharp temperature swings, so outcomes tend to cluster tightly unless cloud cover or rain suppresses the afternoon maximum. [3][1]

The current market pricing already reflects that pattern: **36°C** is the clear frontrunner at 93%, while **37°C or higher** is only 5%, which leaves limited room for a breakout without a strong heat spike. That kind of distribution is consistent with a forecast where the most likely result is a single-degree band, but the upper tail is still live if conditions turn sunnier and drier than expected. [1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon weather updates for Taipei Songshan Airport, especially any change in cloud cover, humidity, or wind that alters how fast temperatures can climb. At 9 AM UTC, AccuWeather already shows cloudy conditions and very high apparent heat at the airport, which supports the idea of a warm day but does not by itself lock in the final reading because the market settles on the day’s *actual* maximum, not the feels-like temperature. [2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.