توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-summer heat makes a high in the **mid-30s Celsius** the key band to watch for this market, with August routinely the hottest month and average daytime highs around 31–33°C. Historical data for Tokyo show an August record high of **37.3°C**, while recent August climatology still centres on the low 30s, so a zero-priced line on any specific top-end band is only defensible if the day turns unusually cool or stormy.[2][3][15]

Comparable outcomes in recent years show how quickly Tokyo can move from ordinary summer warmth into the upper 30s, but also that not every August day reaches that level. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook currently points to temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s rather than extreme heat, and the market’s own reference source will be the daily maximum at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground, so the settled number depends on that station’s observed peak rather than citywide headlines or evening lows.[1][12][14]

The main catalysts are the morning forecast updates, cloud cover, and any rain band or thunderstorm track over the Tokyo Bay area, because those can cap the day’s maximum even in peak summer. Traders should also watch for the first complete Wunderground daily observation for Haneda, since the market only resolves once the final highest temperature for the day is fixed on that source; anything short of a sustained warm-up into the mid-30s keeps higher bands vulnerable to a miss.[14][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.