توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s **Haneda Airport** maximum on 2 August will be set by how hot the city gets before noon and whether any late cloud or showers cap the afternoon peak. The market’s 0% YES price is hard to square with the seasonal pattern: August in Tokyo is typically around 31°C on average, and current forecasts elsewhere for Tokyo point to an 83–91°F range through the morning and early afternoon, which keeps mid-30s Celsius on the table if sunshine holds.[1][5][8]

For context, recent Japanese heat has been severe enough to push Tokyo to 36.4°C earlier this summer, while other parts of the country have already recorded 40°C-plus days in the same season.[11][19] That history matters because a single clear, subsidence-driven day can outperform monthly averages, especially in metropolitan Tokyo where urban heat can add a few degrees and stop the peak from arriving until mid- or late afternoon.[10][13]

The main trader catalysts are the daily forecast revisions, the timing of any rain band or sea-breeze shift, and whether the Tokyo area keeps the strong Pacific High influence that official Japanese guidance has recently linked to hotter-than-normal conditions.[2][13] Polymarket notes that revisions to recorded temperatures remain relevant until the first datapoint for the following day is published, so late updates from the station feed and any change in the synoptic set-up can still move the outcome materially.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.